Oh-Bama: playing with the numbers

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

So, last year (2011) the average number of jobs added per month was 153,000. the unemployment rate stayed pretty much steady, dropped about 0.5 percent for the year.

This year so far, the average number of jobs added per month is 146,000, and the unemployment rate stayed pretty much steady, dropped about 0.2 % for the year.

For September they added 114,000, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.3 % in one month. 

Wall Street couldn't care less about jobs. Companies are making more money with fewer employees.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

It's a pretty good time to have a college education.  For everyone else, not so much.  Thanks Barry.

50% of last years college graduates are unemployed.

[Pete]

Wall Street couldn't care less about jobs. Companies are making more money with fewer employees.

Which is exactly what Republicans want.  You are all over the rough ridin' place.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Wall Street couldn't care less about jobs. Companies are making more money with fewer employees.

Which is exactly what Republicans want.  You are all over the rough ridin' place.

They'll hire when revenues increase. Not happening on a large scale right now.

[MeatSauce]

It's a pretty good time to have a college education.  For everyone else, not so much.  Thanks Barry.

please direct "everyone else" to DM me for application instructions. yw.

[_33]

Why does everyone think that they president has something to do with the success or failure of the economy? 

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Why does everyone think that they president has something to do with the success or failure of the economy? 

Because he has spent a couple of trillion dollars to try and prop it up?  Maybe it was a waste of money.

[sys]

For September they added 114,000, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.3 % in one month. 

they revised the numbers from previous months up.  have you never looked at a jobs report before?  or any econ stats?  they revise everything for like 2 years following the first publication.

[06wildcat]

Also, the 114K is new jobs ... i.e. jobs created in September. Unemployment actually went down because something like 875k people found work. Combination of new jobs and previous jobs etc. This was actually a stellar jobs report because the labor participation rate went up as well.

Also it appears that some seasonal assumptions are changing. The 20-24 year employment from Aug to Sept is functionally Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) right now with a big drop in Aug and a huge gain in Sept.

But Sys is absolutely right...that 875k number is really, really noisy to the tune of being adjusted +/- around 400k by the time the full information is available. New jobs number is similar in that it's about +/- 40k.

[wetwillie]

We're back baby!

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Also, the 114K is new jobs ... i.e. jobs created in September. Unemployment actually went down because something like 875k people found work. Combination of new jobs and previous jobs etc. This was actually a stellar jobs report because the labor participation rate went up as well.

Also it appears that some seasonal assumptions are changing. The 20-24 year employment from Aug to Sept is functionally Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) right now with a big drop in Aug and a huge gain in Sept.

But Sys is absolutely right...that 875k number is really, really noisy to the tune of being adjusted +/- around 400k by the time the full information is available. New jobs number is similar in that it's about +/- 40k.

The 114,000 are real jobs for real money. I would love to see the true results of the household polling and more of the questions they were asking in order to find 750,000 jobs not reported by businesses. I'm guessing most of those are unpaid campaign canvassers for the Obama campaign (acorn and such). It's all very convenient. 

[06wildcat]

Also, the 114K is new jobs ... i.e. jobs created in September. Unemployment actually went down because something like 875k people found work. Combination of new jobs and previous jobs etc. This was actually a stellar jobs report because the labor participation rate went up as well.

Also it appears that some seasonal assumptions are changing. The 20-24 year employment from Aug to Sept is functionally Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) right now with a big drop in Aug and a huge gain in Sept.

But Sys is absolutely right...that 875k number is really, really noisy to the tune of being adjusted +/- around 400k by the time the full information is available. New jobs number is similar in that it's about +/- 40k.

The 114,000 are real jobs for real money. I would love to see the true results of the household polling and more of the questions they were asking in order to find 750,000 jobs not reported by businesses. I'm guessing most of those are unpaid campaign canvassers for the Obama campaign (acorn and such). It's all very convenient. 

How do you not understand the difference between a new job and existing job? There were 114k NEW jobs last month. There's millions of existing jobs that are unfilled. The report says that 875k people found work through a combination of new jobs and existing jobs.

It's also possible only 74k new jobs were created and only 475k people found work. Of course the new jobs could also be revised to 154k and people finding work could be 1,275k. It's a best guess with incomplete information. It can often be incredibly noisy when season factors are wrong (20-24 demo noted earlier) or there's a swing from one direction to another. Employment has always been a lagging indicator and we won't know the true September employment number for several more months.

[8manpick]

It's a pretty good time to have a college education.  For everyone else, not so much.  Thanks Barry.

50% of last years college graduates are unemployed.

Must be a thing, but literally no one I know that graduated in either May or December are unemployed. Including a couple communications majors and a photo major

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Also, the 114K is new jobs ... i.e. jobs created in September. Unemployment actually went down because something like 875k people found work. Combination of new jobs and previous jobs etc. This was actually a stellar jobs report because the labor participation rate went up as well.

Also it appears that some seasonal assumptions are changing. The 20-24 year employment from Aug to Sept is functionally Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) right now with a big drop in Aug and a huge gain in Sept.

But Sys is absolutely right...that 875k number is really, really noisy to the tune of being adjusted +/- around 400k by the time the full information is available. New jobs number is similar in that it's about +/- 40k.

The 114,000 are real jobs for real money. I would love to see the true results of the household polling and more of the questions they were asking in order to find 750,000 jobs not reported by businesses. I'm guessing most of those are unpaid campaign canvassers for the Obama campaign (acorn and such). It's all very convenient. 

How do you not understand the difference between a new job and existing job? There were 114k NEW jobs last month. There's millions of existing jobs that are unfilled. The report says that 875k people found work through a combination of new jobs and existing jobs.

It's also possible only 74k new jobs were created and only 475k people found work. Of course the new jobs could also be revised to 154k and people finding work could be 1,275k. It's a best guess with incomplete information. It can often be incredibly noisy when season factors are wrong (20-24 demo noted earlier) or there's a swing from one direction to another. Employment has always been a lagging indicator and we won't know the true September employment number for several more months.

Yeah, I get it. The numbers are complete bullshit designed for people that have no clue so they can run around proclaiming Obama is the new Ronald Reagan adding 875,000 new jobs!

 

The ADP National Employment Report

September 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 162,000 from August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gains in previous months were revised lower: the July increase was reduced by 17,000 to an increase of 156,000, while the August increase was reduced by 12,000 to an increase of 189,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 144,000 in September, down from 175,000 in August. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 18,000 jobs in September. Manufacturing employment rose 4,000, while construction employment rose 10,000, the strongest since March when mild winter weather was boosting construction activity. The financial services sector added 7,000 jobs in September, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly gain.

[06wildcat]

OK, you want to continue to be a tard. I now remember why I largely quit responding to you.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

OK, you want to continue to be a tard. I now remember why I largely quit responding to you.

Like I said, I know what the numbers represent, but I also know why they suddenly decided to release them now, to confuse the useful idiots. The household survey numbers mean almost nothing.

[sys]

I also know why they suddenly decided to release them now.

jfc.

[Trim]

It's a pretty good time to have a college education.  For everyone else, not so much.  Thanks Barry.

50% of last years college graduates are unemployed.

Must be a thing, but literally no one I know that graduated in either May or December are unemployed. Including a couple communications majors and a photo major

Confirmed.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Oh snap! The real numbers are back, including California this time.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49460659

[puniraptor]

Dammit I thought this was an Alabama statistical matchup thread 

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Real numbers are once again being reported. Good work 51% of America.

The Department of Labor has announced that new jobless claims rose by a staggering 78,000 in the first week after the election, reaching a seasonally-adjusted total of 439,000. Over the past year, and in the weeks leading up to the election, jobless claims were said to be declining, dipping as low as 339,000, with the media proclaiming that they had reached the "lowest level in more than four years." Now, suddenly, the news seems far less rosy.

From the Department of Labor press release this morning:

    In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 439,000, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average of 372,000.

Some of the new claims, especially in New Jersey, were due to Hurricane Sandy--but these were offset by a decline in claims filed in New York. The highest numbers of new filings came from Pennsylvania and Ohio, where there were thousands of layoffs in the construction, manufacturing, and automobile industries.

Both states had been targeted by the presidential campaigns. President Obama highlighted his record of job creation in Ohio in particular, focusing on the automobile industry. The state reported 6,450 new jobless claims in the week after the election--second-highest after Pennsylvania, which recorded 7,766 new claims.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm#.UKUpU2eWHIV

[sonofdaxjones]

. . . and more layoffs coming.

[p1k3]

I love how the food stamp # was supposed to come out a day before the election. Well, it didn't

[sonofdaxjones]

Biggest increases in unemployment applications . . . Ohio and Penn.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Maybe there are a lot of butthurt assholes just laying off everyone with an Obama bumper sticker like I keep hearing about on the radio.