Messages

1

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Noah smith, liar or dumbass?

« on: Today at 03:22:04 PM »

i think it just shows that younger cohorts in the us have higher incomes at the same stage in life than did older cohorts, and that gen z does not diverge from that trend.  there could be some compositional effects that are distorting the data as presented, but it's not immediately clear to me that there would be.

it's true that the cost of housing has outpaced inflation more generally, but gen z is still spending less on housing than did older cohorts.  americans are still getting richer.

https://twitter.com/JeffreyKleintop/status/1780707675850064219

kk, what is your response to this chart?

Well the "adjusted for household size" is doing a lot of work by itself, but saying housing "costs" are not much higher than a generation ago is ignoring the fact that housing is also an asset that is much more valuable than a generation ago.

So again, the chart is just non-responsive to people who make statements like "millenials are not even able to start having families because of the costs of housing, childcare and education which makes it very difficult."

In fact, this chart just uses that fact to point out that millenial income is higher because they don't have any kids and are single or DINKs. That doesn't mean that inflation has not affected their decision to have kids.

2

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: The Biden (interim) Dictator

« on: Today at 10:51:22 AM »

The price of coal is up 2.6% YTD and we are nearly a month in to the supply disruption so I guess we can say it doesn't look like a big deal yet.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

3

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: The Biden (interim) Dictator

« on: Today at 10:46:42 AM »

Coal Exports by Country
Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of coal during 2022.

Australia: US$83.3 billion (35% of total coal exports)
Indonesia: $46.7 billion (19.6%)
Russia: $42.8 billion (18%)
United States: $17.3 billion (7.3%)
South Africa: $13 billion (5.5%)
Canada: $10.8 billion (4.5%)
Mongolia: $6.5 billion (2.7%)
Netherlands: $2.2 billion (0.9%)
Mozambique: $2 billion (0.9%)
Poland: $1.6 billion (0.7%)
Colombia: $1.3 billion (0.6%)
China: $1.2 billion (0.5%)
Kazakhstan: $946.5 million (0.4%)
Philippines: $883.1 million (0.4%)
Belgium: $763.6 million (0.3%)

As the second-largest exporting hub for coal in the United States, accounting for nearly one-third (28 percent) of total exports in 2023, the Port of Baltimore has helped meet that demand.

so at absolute worst 2% of global supply slack has to be picked up by the global market (including the US) and most of what we export doesn't go to Europe anyway.

I guess, I feel like we may have bigger things to worry about.

I didn't post more from that article because #blueanongE gets extremely triggered and ragey when I do that . . . but always glad to see that you've avoided the "been on the rise" component of international exports of U.S. coal.  While also avoiding nearly a third of all U.S. coal exports departing from that port, and avoiding the impact on domestic coal supply (and I know you guys hate hate hate coal and the power it provides) while also avoiding the impact on special coal needed to power our dwindling domestically controlled steel mills.

I didn't avoid it, I did the math and told you this affects 2% of global supply.

4

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: The Biden (interim) Dictator

« on: Today at 10:18:27 AM »

Coal Exports by Country
Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of coal during 2022.

Australia: US$83.3 billion (35% of total coal exports)
Indonesia: $46.7 billion (19.6%)
Russia: $42.8 billion (18%)
United States: $17.3 billion (7.3%)
South Africa: $13 billion (5.5%)
Canada: $10.8 billion (4.5%)
Mongolia: $6.5 billion (2.7%)
Netherlands: $2.2 billion (0.9%)
Mozambique: $2 billion (0.9%)
Poland: $1.6 billion (0.7%)
Colombia: $1.3 billion (0.6%)
China: $1.2 billion (0.5%)
Kazakhstan: $946.5 million (0.4%)
Philippines: $883.1 million (0.4%)
Belgium: $763.6 million (0.3%)

As the second-largest exporting hub for coal in the United States, accounting for nearly one-third (28 percent) of total exports in 2023, the Port of Baltimore has helped meet that demand.

so at absolute worst 2% of global supply slack has to be picked up by the global market (including the US) and most of what we export doesn't go to Europe anyway.

I guess, I feel like we may have bigger things to worry about.

5

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Noah smith, liar or dumbass?

« on: Today at 06:24:07 AM »

I guess it depends on what it purports to show. Most of the arguments I hear about these generational comparisons have to do with the inflation in costs of things like housing which is not captured by this because it is looking at income and not wealth.

Overall I think the chart is non-responsive to the claims I generally hear about inflation in costs of things that are assets or are associated with having a family while inflation of things like having a computer or tv have not.

6

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: European Club Soccer Thread! (EPL, Champions League, Europa, etc... :D )

« on: April 18, 2024, 09:05:09 AM »

@fun_muffin

https://spfl.co.uk/league/premiership/table

7

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Noah smith, liar or dumbass?

« on: April 18, 2024, 04:47:30 AM »

It is possible he is both.

8

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Possible WW3 thread

« on: April 16, 2024, 01:45:44 PM »

I can acknowledge that the F35 seems to be much more successful than was thought by many.

that's all i ever wanted.


on arms control, it's ironic, at least to me, that the policies favored by isolationists (you and dax) provide an enormous incentive for countries around the world to reengage with nuclear weapons development.

Really? I guess I am a bit of an accelerationist on arms control but I don’t think I’ve talked about it.

My number one preference would be to bring all countries in to the arms control agreements and continue to negotiate and expand them.

My second best option is for further proliferation, which is already occurring, to force us back to the number one preference because it scares people straight.

9

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Possible WW3 thread

« on: April 16, 2024, 08:58:56 AM »

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1779964782181011613

Noah is being so incredibly dishonest it is hard to read.

He starts by conflating nuclear armed ICBMs with cruise missiles, drones, and short to medium range ballistic missiles. Then has a quote from Yglesias without context talking about nuclear ICBMs and makes the following points:
1) N Korea and other rogue states didn’t at the time have the technology to hit us with ICBMs
2) missile defense against nuclear ICBMs was nearly impossible

Noah then concedes that on the actual issue being discussed then Matt was right and is still right today.

But then he fails to mention the fact that the Bush administration in pursuing missile defense also just happened to basically dismantle the entire arms control treaty architecture that had slowly worked to set norms against a new arms race in ICBMs, ABMs and the militarization of space.

We can’t blame Bush for the looming expiration of START, but it certainly didn’t help that they unilaterally withdrew from multiple arms control treaties to pursue what even Noah describes as a failed strategy to prevent ICBMs ending our civilization.

Anyways, they largely pivoted to anti-terrorism afterwards but the arms control damage had already been done. We are in a much worse position with regard to arms control because of these choices.

On the A-10/F-35 debate—I take his point, I can acknowledge that the F35 seems to be much more successful than was thought by many.

10

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Possible WW3 thread

« on: April 13, 2024, 09:34:29 PM »

It would be kind of ironic if the war we thought would start WW3 just happens to still be going on while the actual WW3 gets started.

My nightmare scenario is Israel and Iran expands in to a war, then the US is going to have to decide how involved we want to be. That would get us an energy crisis, and BDS for real. Israel feels existentially threatened and gets a little reckless with their nuclear arsenal or starts threatening it and then Russia or China wants to find a way to assert their global leadership by having their own little proxy war with US’ greatest ally and the US and the West decides it is civilizational war time.

I really hope Israel picks a military target and goes small.

11

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Possible WW3 thread

« on: April 13, 2024, 09:24:02 PM »

I have zero doubt Israel is going to attack Iranian soil now.

12

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / European Club Soccer Thread! (EPL, Champions League, Europa, etc... [emoji2] )

« on: April 13, 2024, 03:22:04 PM »

Yeah, Casemiro is just finished and it happened so fast. Insane dropoff in form from last season to now. A replacement for him and a new CB to partner with Martinez next season should be the first priorities.

I saw him multiple times in the opposition 18 and if Bournemouth played one more pass the back 4 would have been completely exposed again. I understand Bruno dropping deep to get space and pick a pass I don’t understand why you would ask the slowest man in England who is supposed to provide defensive cover to be 40-50 yard further up field when he won’t even be able to put a body on anyone to stop a counter. Again, that is on Ten Hag.

13

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: European Club Soccer Thread! (EPL, Champions League, Europa, etc... :D )

« on: April 13, 2024, 01:17:47 PM »

Casameiro is a waste of space. Bruno not only scored both goals but is the only midfielder that presses and tracks back in time consistently.

14

The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Trump 2024

« on: April 13, 2024, 01:13:09 PM »

I’m so mad at Trump I am once again voting for one of the biggest historical racists to ever walk the halls of Washington DC . . . #blueanongE

Joe “incarceration nation” Biden is my guy .  . . Steve Dave and #blueanongE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One of the biggest historical racists to ever walk the halls of Washington DC is a wild claim. I don’t like lots of politicians in 2024 but I wouldn’t put them up against 1965 or 1855 Senate’s worst and be taken seriously.

Come on man

Your boy was BFF’s with Bob Byrd and no amount of white washing (LMAO) is going to change Byrd’s KKK past

Your boy Bill Clinton idolized a notorious segregationist. Which why the deification of the racist Clinton’s by #blueanon will never stop being hilarious to me. Hillary was the vital cog in the “we will bring them to heal” movement. I’ll give you 3 shots as to who “them” was.


#blueanon: Circling the wagons around their racists like none other


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah not great. But being friends with a former KKK member or being “friends” with Storm Thurmond (R) seems not as bad as say owning slaves, or being Storm Thurmond.

15

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: competitive little kid sports

« on: April 13, 2024, 12:23:58 PM »

About pick up soccer in manhattan, for adults I think it is actually pretty great and my life has been improved by it so much and I am very thankful for it.

16

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: competitive little kid sports

« on: April 13, 2024, 12:20:25 PM »

For example, I think Sweden has set a great example by partially privatizing their Social Security system.

I admit I started it, but let’s not pit this up.

I’m curious what you think about the model for youth sports as compared with our pay to play system. I think rec leagues from our youth are probably overly romanticized but covid for sure killed off MPRD sports in MHK and I think that was a loss for the community.

I also think generally that open gyms or pick up for basketball and regular pick up games for soccer and vital for the health of the sports. I think we are too far gone on baseball in the states but pick up game culture is sports culture for most of the world.

I do not particularly like pay for play. I am most familiar with youth soccer and my thoughts will primarily be based off my experiences in youth soccer.

Nothing is going to change in US youth soccer until there is the introduction of solidarity payments as there is in much of the world of soccer. There is a good chance that this is what makes the facilities in Bryne, Norway possible. The US Soccer Federation should be handsomely rewarding clubs who produce players that make the various national teams and/or play at a high level. They have a lot of money and waste it on their cronies. There is never going to be some sort of government support for youth sports and I wouldn't be in favor of it. Solidarity payments would completely change how youth soccer operates.

I also am not convinced that pick up game culture is the sports culture in Europe. I'm sure there are plenty of kids playing pick up soccer games, but the ones that are good are going to club Academies at young ages.

is that through scholarships to the academies?

There are plenty of challenges like a lack of population density and no scale for infrastructure and coaching for academies because of the relatively huge lack of professional clubs compared to most of the rest of the world. I like your idea but those other challenges are not easy to solve.

As far as pick up culture, I don’t pretend to know much about Europe but I would guess it is at least similar to basketball culture here. For poorer countries that have fewer academies there is a very strong pick up culture and I think the problem is we have neither.

I think it is hard to imagine we get kids playing unsupervised in streets and parks given our society’s ability paranoia anti-social parenting culture but maybe we can do a bit better at pick up game culture by starting with more accessible youth sports facilities. I think Manhattan has done some of this hard work with the middle schools and Douglass center, but there is more to be done.

17

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / European Club Soccer Thread! (EPL, Champions League, Europa, etc... [emoji2] )

« on: April 13, 2024, 12:06:48 PM »

Man U’s defense is so hilariously bad. Like watching a pick up game. 

They are must watch because there are so many chances.

18

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: travel thread

« on: April 12, 2024, 10:24:26 AM »

Rome is probably my favorite city I've ever been to. I would say that is the move. After you've done your walking/wandering/touring can sit for aperitivo and let that stretch in to dinner.

19

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / competitive little kid sports

« on: April 11, 2024, 02:02:10 PM »

For example, I think Sweden has set a great example by partially privatizing their Social Security system.

I admit I started it, but let’s not pit this up.

I’m curious what you think about the model for youth sports as compared with our pay to play system. I think rec leagues from our youth are probably overly romanticized but covid for sure killed off MPRD sports in MHK and I think that was a loss for the community.

I also think generally that open gyms or pick up for basketball and regular pick up games for soccer and vital for the health of the sports. I think we are too far gone on baseball in the states but pick up game culture is sports culture for most of the world.

20

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Recent motion picture viewing - Add your own!

« on: April 11, 2024, 10:50:58 AM »

Zone of interest - every once in a while it's good to be reminded that the nazis were real jerks 5/7

It just arrived on a streaming service and I will be watching this weekend I think.

21

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: competitive little kid sports

« on: April 11, 2024, 10:50:03 AM »

Is it that hard to believe we could learn something from the Nordics? I think we could learn a lot.

Although their customs on not feeding guests is horrendous.

Who is saying we can't learn anything from the Nordics?

Sounds like no one.

22

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: competitive little kid sports

« on: April 11, 2024, 09:07:55 AM »

23

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Kc restaurant suggestions

« on: April 11, 2024, 08:46:51 AM »

Hot damn, there is no better drunk food than Pancho's. Manhattan is really behind the times on this. How the hell did it get skipped over for Junction City?

JC ethnic food is a sleeper. They also have better food trucks.

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Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: European Club Soccer Thread! (EPL, Champions League, Europa, etc... :D )

« on: April 11, 2024, 08:42:20 AM »

Arteta finished 8th and 8th his first two seasons.

Haha yep

Is anyone here implying that Ten Hag will even bring a coherent team set up in the same universe as Arteta? I know no one is saying he is as good a coach as Arteta, but he doesn’t even seem to have much of a plan.

I saw that he had 29 different lineups for 34 games so far this year. Of course they have had injuries, but that is not all of it.

Their midfield is an enormous problem, Casemeiro is very old and slow, but he also is either being asked to be like 30-40 yards further up field than at Madrid or he has taken it upon himself. I think think based upon the runs McTominay was making when he was getting goals it is part of Ten Hag’s philosophy. But this indicates a complete unwillingness to compromise based upon his teams personnel.

They need a striker, they need at least one holding midfielder, they probably need another full back and possibly another central defender.

Wan Bissaka looks worse, Luke Shaw is great, but Dalot is terrible and they don’t have a center back pairing that has worked well at all (although having zero midfield protection doesn’t help). I think Martinez is very good, but he needs someone else that will cover his weaknesses. He can get caught out ball hunting and he’s small. Harry McGuire has looked the part recently, so maybe it is him?? Varane needs a rehab facility named after him. Lindelof is an ok utility man, but can’t be the answer to start week in week out at center back.

So besides the fact that they don’t have any coherent philosophy, they have a squad that conservatively has 2-3 gaping holes and while they are 6th they still have a negative goal differential and look miles off the top 4.

So other than all that, great comparison.

25

Other Sports (Tiger's Back) / Re: competitive little kid sports

« on: April 10, 2024, 09:50:47 PM »

Is it that hard to believe we could learn something from the Nordics? I think we could learn a lot.

Although their customs on not feeding guests is horrendous.