Author Topic: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats (Read 541751 times)

sys · « **Reply #75 on:** July 15, 2018, 09:18:37 PM »

Quote from: Kat Kid on July 15, 2018, 08:24:50 PM

I’ve found it is always a good idea to listen to your ideological enemies who would never vote for you and wish to completely destroy your entire political project for strategic election advice.

The odd part about this is Hillary Clinton tried to appeal to moderate republicans and suburban whites and got completely owned because they all have hated her for 30 years.

i'll be honest, ksu_w coming along with my exact same hypothesis does make me question it.

not really the same thing as clinton. white people mostly didn't like her in 2016 (she did get something of a white bonus in 2008), so even though she tried to go get white women, she was the wrong person for the job. oth, basically no one hates orourke. they either don't know him or they like him. but if you look at his poll numbers, white urbans and suburbans just melt in his hand, at least in texas. he's also pretty different on policy (although he's enough of an unknown quantity at this point that he can probably go anywhere). he's pretty liberal but projects a moderate persona. kinda the opposite of clinton.

he has to prove he can get blacks to turn out for him. obviously, it does nothing to hold onto the last few white male democrats left in america if you can't turn out minorities (i'm pretty confident that eventually he'd get hispanics. he's not doing great with them statewide now, but he did fine in his district previously).

sys · « **Reply #76 on:** July 15, 2018, 09:27:10 PM »

he also needs to prove he can actually get white women. when liblib asked earlier about what % i'd want to see in the senate election, i should have said: i want to see him win women overall, overperform with white women and to turnout black voters.

chum1 · « **Reply #77 on:** July 15, 2018, 09:55:46 PM »

Pretty sure all white women are now Democrats and pretty enthusiastic about voting against Trump.

SkinnyBenny · « **Reply #78 on:** July 15, 2018, 10:37:56 PM »

Beto is going to be another Jason Kander.

sys · « **Reply #79 on:** July 15, 2018, 11:02:50 PM »

Quote from: chum1 on July 15, 2018, 09:55:46 PM

Pretty sure all white women are now Democrats and pretty enthusiastic about voting against Trump.

without looking at any numbers, i'd guess white women in texas are somewhere around 70% r/lean r.

SkinnyBenny · « **Reply #80 on:** July 15, 2018, 11:34:20 PM »

Quote from: chum1 on July 15, 2018, 09:55:46 PM

Pretty sure all white women are now Democrats and pretty enthusiastic about voting against Trump.

You can't be serious.

chum1 · « **Reply #81 on:** July 16, 2018, 12:08:05 AM »

Quote

white women, a majority of whom backed Trump in 2016, now say they intend to vote for Democratic House candidates in 2018 by a 14-point margin

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/12/opinion/trump-midterms-gender-gap.html

SkinnyBenny · « **Reply #82 on:** July 16, 2018, 12:41:01 AM »

I’m gonna go ahead and assume that that polling won’t turn out to be as accurate as you think it will. Sure, some will flip, but if the pussy grabbing tape didn’t make them cross over in 2016, I doubt the things he’s done since will have the earth-shattering effect some people think. Just my hunch though, so who knows.

Kat Kid · « **Reply #83 on:** July 16, 2018, 12:46:48 AM »

The majority of Trump’s support was women and people of color.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

chum1 · « **Reply #84 on:** July 16, 2018, 01:00:54 AM »

Quote from: SkinnyBenny on July 16, 2018, 12:41:01 AM

I doubt the things he’s done since will have the earth-shattering effect some people think.

Rowe v. Wade??? Separating toddlers from mothers???

SkinnyBenny · « **Reply #85 on:** July 16, 2018, 06:04:37 PM »

I mean yeah, but these people are stupid and have bad memories. Also, not all women are pro-choice. Look at anti-abortion protests. Lots of women want to overturn Roe v. Wade.

sys · « **Reply #86 on:** July 23, 2018, 11:26:11 AM »

ok.

https://theintercept.com/2018/07/23/tim-ryan-presidential-run-2020/

sys · « **Reply #87 on:** July 26, 2018, 09:46:25 PM »

https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/a22554864/beto-orourke-interview-texas-senate/

sys · « **Reply #88 on:** July 29, 2018, 10:00:43 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 26, 2018, 09:46:25 PM

https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/a22554864/beto-orourke-interview-texas-senate/

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1022535484755648513

catastrophe · « **Reply #89 on:** July 30, 2018, 07:52:17 AM »

Really though? I just don’t see him having a snowball’s chance in hell.

sys · « **Reply #90 on:** July 30, 2018, 09:48:43 AM »

a snowball's chance in hell at what?

catastrophe · « **Reply #91 on:** July 30, 2018, 01:05:42 PM »

Responding to the article you posted:

Quote

He's a Kennedyesque longshot in a roiling red state, but the Democrat from Texas just might have a chance at unseating Ted Cruz.

I just don't think there is any chance.

sys · « **Reply #92 on:** July 30, 2018, 06:05:36 PM »

i think silver has said he'd guess that orourke has something like a 20% chance at the senate seat. that was just a ballpark guess, not a result from a model and it was several polls ago, so he might guess a little lower now.

but regardless, this is a thread for 2020 presidential candidates, not 2018 texas senate candidates. winning the senate seat might be detrimental to him deciding to run for president. at any rate, it certainly isn't necessary for him to win the senate seat in order to run for president. i mention him in this thread because he's the only young democrat i've noticed with a shred of charisma (other than deval patrick, maybe).

sys · « **Reply #93 on:** July 30, 2018, 06:11:57 PM »

ammendum - booker is charismatic as eff, but it's that old school bill clinton style "i feel your pain" charisma that reads as super fake. i think he's out of step with the authenticity mood of the current electorate.

Kat Kid · « **Reply #94 on:** July 30, 2018, 06:20:53 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 30, 2018, 06:05:36 PM

i think silver has said he'd guess that orourke has something like a 20% chance at the senate seat. that was just a ballpark guess, not a result from a model and it was several polls ago, so he might guess a little lower now.

but regardless, this is a thread for 2020 presidential candidates, not 2018 texas senate candidates. winning the senate seat might be detrimental to him deciding to run for president. at any rate, it certainly isn't necessary for him to win the senate seat in order to run for president. i mention him in this thread because he's the only young democrat i've noticed with a shred of charisma (other than deval patrick, maybe).

yeah booker is a consumate politician. I don't think deval patrick is very charismatic, but I've never really seen him speak much at all.

sys · « **Reply #95 on:** July 30, 2018, 06:30:36 PM »

i've seen patrick speak, and he's a very good speaker, but i don't know how charismatic he comes across in less formal interactions. he's also got a bain capital cross hanging around his neck that probably isn't helpful.

wetwillie · « **Reply #96 on:** July 30, 2018, 06:36:20 PM »

The democrats cater to all the excitable minorities, how can they not have a bevy of charismatic candidates?

sys · « **Reply #97 on:** July 30, 2018, 06:37:38 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on July 30, 2018, 06:36:20 PM

how can they not have a bevy of charismatic candidates?

perhaps they will emerge.

catastrophe · « **Reply #98 on:** July 30, 2018, 07:18:26 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 30, 2018, 06:11:57 PM

ammendum - booker is charismatic as eff, but it's that old school bill clinton style "i feel your pain" charisma that reads as super fake. i think he's out of step with the authenticity mood of the current electorate.

Julian Castro is the real deal. I'd put him well ahead of Beto and at least equal to Booker. He also has a pretty Obama-esque vibe that a lot of people will probably be craving after another year of this crap show.

sys · « **Reply #99 on:** July 30, 2018, 07:30:33 PM »

he would be interesting. i wasn't aware he was that serious about running.