Author Topic: The Official Bracketology Thread  (Read 367072 times)

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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2100 on: February 19, 2018, 01:54:10 PM »
As of this morning's bracket matrix....


Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2101 on: February 19, 2018, 02:54:03 PM »
As of this morning's bracket matrix....



Yep.  Michigan's Ave. Seed was 7.3 & Arkansas 7.7 while ours was 10.2 on Bracket Matrix. 

When speaking of these 12 teams in the 8-10 seeds, the gap between the best 8 seed and the worst 10 seed isn't much IMO.  The concensus has Michigan and Houston as 7 seeds. I would personally put those 2 as part of the 12 teams....then have FLA & Creighton with 7 seeds.

I already said I think St Mary's is the weakest of the 12 teams. And believe we are right in the middle, the 3rd or 4th best 9 seed.   

« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 03:39:18 PM by Powercat Posse »

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2102 on: February 19, 2018, 07:36:55 PM »
Based on the eye matrix, we're better than every team on that matrix except maybe ArKansas or Creighton.
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Offline sys

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2103 on: February 19, 2018, 08:53:41 PM »
hey posse, if kstate beats ou, they're out, right?  they can't get in with their only win in the last 9 being isu at home.
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Offline pvegs

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2104 on: February 19, 2018, 09:34:38 PM »
Based on the eye matrix, we're better than every team on that matrix except maybe ArKansas or Creighton.

i agree with fsd. oh, bby. life is weird.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2105 on: February 19, 2018, 09:47:58 PM »
hey posse, if kstate beats ou, they're out, right?  they can't get in with their only win in the last 9 being isu at home.

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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2106 on: February 19, 2018, 10:45:46 PM »
hey posse, if kstate beats ou, they're out, right?  they can't get in with their only win in the last 9 being isu at home.

1992, Iowa St was 5-9 in Big 8. Beat 13th ranked Mizzou before losing in Semis of Big8 Tourney.
Got an an large bid at 17-12

1998, Florida St went 6-10 in ACC. Lost in opening round of ACC tourney. Got at large bid at 17-13

That was a different era. Those are the only 2 teams that were worse than 2 under .500 in Conference play that got in with At large. Several have done it being 2 under .500

I guess it's possible that Ou could make it at 7-11.  I definitely don't think they should.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2107 on: February 20, 2018, 11:26:21 AM »
So HBBIQ-ers, what’s it gonna take down the stretch to secure a non-play-in tournament seed for the Cats? 2-2? Sure seems like a 10-8 Big 12 record should be comfortably in. I don’t see a whole lot of difference between the strength of our opponents down the stretch so not sure it even matters where the W’s come from.

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2108 on: February 20, 2018, 12:50:27 PM »
So HBBIQ-ers, what’s it gonna take down the stretch to secure a non-play-in tournament seed for the Cats? 2-2? Sure seems like a 10-8 Big 12 record should be comfortably in. I don’t see a whole lot of difference between the strength of our opponents down the stretch so not sure it even matters where the W’s come from.

If we went 2-2 & 0-1 in KC.....i would be surprised if we are in a play-in game.

If we go 1-3 & 0-1, then the possibility is very real we end in a play-in game.  And at that point, with a 9-10 overall record vs Big 12 teams, the chance of not making is there.    It would come down to what other teams do.   At 1-3 and 1-1 in KC, I'm confident we would be in, just not sure what seed




Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2109 on: February 20, 2018, 12:51:24 PM »
So HBBIQ-ers, what’s it gonna take down the stretch to secure a non-play-in tournament seed for the Cats? 2-2? Sure seems like a 10-8 Big 12 record should be comfortably in. I don’t see a whole lot of difference between the strength of our opponents down the stretch so not sure it even matters where the W’s come from.

Agreed.

Offline WildcatNation

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2110 on: February 20, 2018, 12:53:14 PM »
Florida State has basically the same resume as us and is projected as an 8 seed?

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2111 on: February 20, 2018, 12:56:54 PM »
Florida State has basically the same resume as us and is projected as an 8 seed?

Yeah, when you start comparing some of these individually it is pretty crazy.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2112 on: February 20, 2018, 01:13:14 PM »
Getting on the 8/9 line is great because you can expect to get pasted by the 1 seed in the round of 32 and have zero expectations of winning.
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2113 on: February 20, 2018, 02:09:08 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2114 on: February 20, 2018, 02:13:20 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

Absurd longshot: We could go 4-0 and end up with no wins against an NCAA tournament team.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2115 on: February 20, 2018, 02:31:07 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

There are no top 50 wins anymore. It's all about the quads/tiers.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-07-14/di-mens-basketball-committee-redefines-quality-win

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2116 on: February 20, 2018, 02:34:23 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

No. A win in any of these 4 games is much more important than a loss. 

Like FAN said, top 50 isn't relevant.  It's about Q1 and Q2 Tier wins.
Q1 - Top 30 home win, top 50 Neutral win, top 75 road win
Q2- Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Road 76-135

That said, hypothetically if Tcu ends at 29 or 31 on RPI....our home win vs them won't be viewed much differently, even though 1 scenario it's a Q1 win and another it's Q2.  The committee will see that a home win vs TCU is a good win.     

We have 8 wins in the Q1/Q2 categories. It's unlikely that any of those will fall and become Q3.  Each of these last 4 games will get an Opportunity to get a Q1 or Q2 win.

« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 02:40:30 PM by Powercat Posse »

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2117 on: February 20, 2018, 02:36:25 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

Absurd longshot: We could go 4-0 and end up with no wins against an NCAA tournament team.

that would be incredible and hilarious but there's no way the b12 ends up with only 4 in

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2118 on: February 20, 2018, 02:45:47 PM »
can't wait to see if we end up a 10 seed or a play-in participant

Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2119 on: February 20, 2018, 02:56:32 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

There are no top 50 wins anymore. It's all about the quads/tiers.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-07-14/di-mens-basketball-committee-redefines-quality-win

I was just using that as a simple example.  But if I understand your and PP's responses it sounds like the quad system won't allow a single win/loss to significantly alter the quality of another win/loss when one is at home and one is on the road.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2120 on: February 20, 2018, 02:58:44 PM »
can't wait to see if we end up a 10 seed or a play-in participant

I've said it before, but I actually think if you're not going to be a top 4 seed then 10/11 is a good place to be.  8/9 is one of the worst; playing a toss-up game followed immediately by playing a #1 seed.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2121 on: February 20, 2018, 03:27:42 PM »
can't wait to see if we end up a 10 seed or a play-in participant

I've said it before, but I actually think if you're not going to be a top 4 seed then 10/11 is a good place to be.  8/9 is one of the worst; playing a toss-up game followed immediately by playing a #1 seed.

People say this all the time but there's little to no difference between a 1 and a 2, this is magnified this year. There will be blue bloods on the 2 line, not so much the 1 other than Villanova.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2122 on: February 20, 2018, 03:28:45 PM »
Now for the REALLY HBBIQ-ers:

Since we have already beaten each of the teams we are going to play, is there a chance that our losses could actually still improve KSU's tournament resume?  Example: Texas is currently 53 in RPI.  If they beat us tomorrow, I'm assuming they could get up to top 50, which ironically (at least temporarily) adds one top 50 win to our resume instead of two top 100 wins.  Obviously a win helps more, but is there a point where the difference between a win and loss is kind of a wash?

There are no top 50 wins anymore. It's all about the quads/tiers.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-07-14/di-mens-basketball-committee-redefines-quality-win

I was just using that as a simple example.  But if I understand your and PP's responses it sounds like the quad system won't allow a single win/loss to significantly alter the quality of another win/loss when one is at home and one is on the road.

Correct.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2123 on: February 20, 2018, 03:35:53 PM »
can't wait to see if we end up a 10 seed or a play-in participant

I've said it before, but I actually think if you're not going to be a top 4 seed then 10/11 is a good place to be.  8/9 is one of the worst; playing a toss-up game followed immediately by playing a #1 seed.

People say this all the time but there's little to no difference between a 1 and a 2, this is magnified this year. There will be blue bloods on the 2 line, not so much the 1 other than Villanova.

My point is more geared towards whether you have to play a 1 or 2 in the opening weekend.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: The Official Bracketology Thread
« Reply #2124 on: February 20, 2018, 03:39:27 PM »
Likely to get smashed by either
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