Author Topic: Kentucky  (Read 5991 times)

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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2018, 12:31:31 PM »
I do feel a bit better about what FAN said with his comparisons to the Big 12 teams

I'm also hoping Jarred  Vanderbilt is still sidelined by his injury or very limited against us. That dude is a Rebounding monster.  He's missed time with injuries and only played 238 minutes.  But per 40 minutes, he's Ave 10.75 DR and 7.75 OR. Yikes!

Offline Cire

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2018, 02:38:42 PM »
Really hoping that they are just completely over looking us and the refs let us play however we want and mak and barry are never in foul troubs.

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #27 on: March 20, 2018, 03:20:16 PM »
Really hoping that they are just completely over looking us and the refs let us play however we want and mak and barry are never in foul troubs.

Our D has been really good of late, and the FTR we allow has also gone down.

The last 11 games that we have had Barry, we have allowed 47.2 eFG, 32.0 3Pt%, 46.7 2Pt% and  0.95 PPP

The FTR allowed in those 11 was 32.5.
The 11 games prior to that (10 Big12 and Georgia) we allowed 39.4 FTR

Offline GregKSU1027

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2018, 06:29:18 AM »
The SEC hates Kentucky so we should at least have all of them on our side.

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Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #29 on: March 21, 2018, 08:50:47 AM »
Greg what in the world are you talking about? The SEC loves the SEC

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2018, 01:25:35 AM »
I think if we can do 2 or these 3 things, we will win---

1) KState winning the 3pt% battle.
* Cats are 11-1 in last 20 when we win it

2) Win TO battle by 3-4 or more.  3-4 would be about 4.5- 6.0 on TO%. We won't win the OR battle but can surely win the TO one.

3) Limit UK to 15 or fewer FT makes.  This should mean their FTR is below or well below their norm. UK has made 15 or fewer 7 times last 24 games. They are 2-5 in such games. Our Cats have been better on Defensive FTR lately.  In the last 12 games, we only are allowing 11.2 FT makes (32% FTR)

** UK is a good OR team.  Our Cats have been doing basically everything better on Defense the last 6 weeks and that includes DR.   In our last 12 games, if you take out the final 3:00 of the Creighton game, we are allowing 26.7 OR%.  We were up 62-48 on CU, and let them get 9 ORs. Bad 3 minutes, but improved Defensive Rebounding by Us for sure

« Last Edit: March 22, 2018, 11:36:10 AM by Powercat Posse »

Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2018, 02:11:30 AM »
Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2018, 07:29:47 AM »
Doesn’t that go to _fan’s point about UK being comparable to teams like Baylor and Texas? I suspect they are both pretty high in the O-boarding department(without bothering to look it up, of course).

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2018, 07:49:16 AM »
One thing I can say for certain, their fans are crap. And I'm not talking about their confidence in winning this game. They are pretty confident, but I mean I would be too if I were a blue blood facing a team like K-State. But over the week I've been reading their forum and they have no sense of humor. Like none. I haven't read one post that made me chuckle. Seriously. That's hard to do, most forums have a few witty posters, and they have a very active forum. I'm assuming they are following Calipari's lead here, but they are a seriously sensitive paranoid bunch. They think the media is out to get them. LOL what?  I'd say "go visit, it's a treat", but it's not. Really.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline meow meow

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2018, 08:41:28 AM »
spring ball starts up next week, and we get to pound another "blue blood" tonight shorthanded in a sport 90% of our fans don't care about, life is good

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2018, 09:36:26 AM »
Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.

When opponents rebound 33% or more of their missed shots we are 14-4. When the OR% differential between us and our opponents is negative (meaning we get beat on the boards) we are 15-8 and have won our last 10.

So naw, our deficiencies in rebounding haven't really made a difference in winning and losing this year.

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2018, 09:55:28 AM »
Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.

When opponents rebound 33% or more of their missed shots we are 14-4. When the OR% differential between us and our opponents is negative (meaning we get beat on the boards) we are 15-8 and have won our last 10.

So naw, our deficiencies in rebounding haven't really made a difference in winning and losing this year.
I've always considered a missed rebound negative turnover and a gained rebound a turnover against out opponent. I'm not a stats guy, but I wonder what the total rebounds plus forced turnovers vs the same for the opponent affect the outcome of our games this year.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2018, 10:15:37 AM »
The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2018, 12:56:09 PM »
I really hope #2 Vanderbilt is out or barely plays. One report yesterday thought he was unlikely to play, but it's a game time decision

Offline stunted

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #39 on: March 22, 2018, 02:26:29 PM »
The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.

kind of makes sense, getting a turnover isn't just gaining a possession but also is a defensive stop.

Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #40 on: March 22, 2018, 02:29:45 PM »
 :emawkid:
Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.

When opponents rebound 33% or more of their missed shots we are 14-4. When the OR% differential between us and our opponents is negative (meaning we get beat on the boards) we are 15-8 and have won our last 10.

So naw, our deficiencies in rebounding haven't really made a difference in winning and losing this year.

  :thumbs: thanks. For whatever reason it sure doesn't feel that way.

Offline mocat

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #41 on: March 22, 2018, 03:42:19 PM »
The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.

This is good stuff

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #42 on: March 22, 2018, 05:08:19 PM »
The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.

This is good stuff

This means more to me coming from you @mocat .

Offline steve dave

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #43 on: March 22, 2018, 05:36:22 PM »
LOSERS


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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #44 on: March 22, 2018, 11:59:07 PM »
I think if we can do 2 or these 3 things, we will win---

1) KState winning the 3pt% battle.
* Cats are 11-1 in last 20 when we win it

2) Win TO battle by 3-4 or more.  3-4 would be about 4.5- 6.0 on TO%. We won't win the OR battle but can surely win the TO one.

3) Limit UK to 15 or fewer FT makes.  This should mean their FTR is below or well below their norm. UK has made 15 or fewer 7 times last 24 games. They are 2-5 in such games. Our Cats have been better on Defensive FTR lately.  In the last 12 games, we only are allowing 11.2 FT makes (32% FTR)



We got 2 of the 3. 

88 FTR that the Refs helped you get and you still lost Kentucky.  Have a nice trip home!

Offline Spracne

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #45 on: March 23, 2018, 01:41:44 AM »
This must feel incredible. I envy y'all.

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Offline puniraptor

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #46 on: March 23, 2018, 04:45:57 AM »
Where can I watch a replay?

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #47 on: March 23, 2018, 09:13:59 AM »
Where can I watch a replay?
CBS Sports Channel was looping it last night. It's a great news station during the tournament.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #48 on: March 23, 2018, 09:43:32 AM »
Where can I watch a replay?
March Madness On Demand App and NCAA.com