i have confidence the lakers can still win also
"BOSTON -- In an odd Finals filled with statistical oddities and in which each game has borne virtually no resemblance to its predecessor, it's perhaps fitting that through five games we're left with another unusual situation: There is no clear-cut choice for series MVP. In fact, if Boston were to close things out with a win in Game 6 on Tuesday, as many as four Celtics could garner serious consideration.
Of course, the MVP doesn't have to come from the winning team. While this isn't the letter of the rule it's been an unwritten law for the past four decades -- every Finals MVP since 1969 has come from the winning team. Alas, every rule has its exception, and after Sunday night's 38-point effort we may be looking at one in the form of Kobe Bryant.
While the Celtics deserve their 3-2 lead in the series, there's no question who the best player has been over these first five games. That point was driven home with a sledgehammer in Game 5 when Bryant scored 19 points in the third quarter only to find the Celtics' lead had increased when he was done.
This continued a Finals in which Bryant has had at least 20 points in every game, has had only one game that possibly could be construed as somewhere close to ordinary (Game 2), and has had a pair (Games 1 and 5) in which he was absolutely spectacular.
For the series, Bryant is averaging 30.2 points per game; no other player is averaging more than 19. He's done it reasonably efficiently too, with a 55.2 true shooting percentage in a series in which the average has been 53.4. That's amazing considering the difficulty of the attempts he's taken, especially in Game 5.
Bryant has filled the stat sheet in various and sundry other ways, too. Bryant leads all Finals players in steals, is second in assists and has yanked down six rebounds a game. About the only quibble one could make is that he's been a bit turnover-prone; of course, he's playing against the league's top turnover-forcing defense, so this shouldn't come as a huge shock.
And while the league doesn't award extra points for degree of difficulty, part of the reason Bryant has been forced into such challenging attempts is how little help he's received from the cavalry. Again, this point was hammered into our consciousness in the second half of Game 5 -- Pau Gasol was the only Lakers starter to score a basket after halftime, and his play was tepid throughout (among his other assorted flubs, did anyone else catch him standing in the paint watching as Nate Robinson flew by for an easy fourth-quarter layup?).
If you're not sold on Bryant's MVP case yet, then consider the alternative. If not Kobe, who?
Rajon Rondo, who has yet to have a 20-point game and is 4-for-15 from the free throw line in the series? Ray Allen, who made a record eight 3-pointers in Game 2 but is 0-for-18 from distance in the other four games? Paul Pierce, who didn't become a factor in the series until Game 4? Kevin Garnett, who had only six points in Game 2 and has played only 30.8 minutes a game for the series?
The fact is Bryant has been by far the most productive player, and the only reason the Celtics are ahead is because five of the next six best players (the four above and supersub Glen Davis) have been wearing green. If series MVP voters are using their heads and not their hearts, Bryant is an obvious pick even with his team trailing.
There's an irony here, of course. I mentioned above that only one player has won Finals MVP in a losing effort; it was Bryant's idol and mentor, former Lakers star Jerry West. Wait, there's more. It came in the 1969 Finals … against the Celtics … against a veteran Boston team, in fact, that had won only 48 games and was seeded just fourth in the Eastern Conference at the start of the playoffs. L.A. ended up losing Game 7 at home despite 42 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists from West.
A lot of water still has to go under the bridge for Kobe to join West, but suffice it to say that if Kobe goes for 42, 13 and 12 in a losing effort in the finale the award is probably his regardless of what anyone on the Celtics does.
Of course, Kobe would only join West if the Lakers did, in fact, lose the series. He could also go down in history more happily if the Lakers win the final two games. At this point I'd say it's a foregone conclusion that he'll win the award if that happens, with Gasol having essentially eliminated himself from further consideration with his performances in Games 4 and 5 and no other player coming close to Bryant statistically.
Alas, the odds of L.A. winning both games are not great. While the Lakers pulled the feat off against Detroit in 1988, historically teams trailing 3-2 in the Finals have lost the series 34 times out of 40. The last team to win in such circumstances was Houston in 1994; since then the past eight teams to lead 3-2 have won the series (Chicago in 1996, 1997 and 1998, L.A. in 2000, San Antonio in 2003 and 2005, Miami in 2006 and Boston in 2008).
However, optimists will point out that only Miami in 2006 and Chicago in 1998 were playing on the road in those final two games. Since the league went to a 2-3-2 format, teams coming home with a 3-2 deficit have won twice (Houston in 1994, L.A. in 1988) and lost four times (Dallas in 2006, Utah in 1998, Boston in 1985 and Phoenix in 1993).
Nonetheless, it's hard to be encouraged about the Lakers' plight right now, as one wonders where additional help may come from for Bryant. Most crucially, center Andrew Bynum has to play on a short turnaround after a six-hour flight; flying tends to hurt players recuperating from injuries because it encourages swelling and stiffness (the Celtics won't practice on Monday before heading to L.A. for that exact reason).
And few have forgotten that it was Bynum's absence that allowed Boston to bully Gasol, Lamar Odom and any other Lakers not wearing No. 24 in the 2008 Finals.
Thus, the odds are looking long for the Lakers' hopes of claiming a repeat championship, and all the talk about Bryant joining Magic in L.A.'s five-rings club may be wasted breath. Instead, there's a decent chance Bryant will join another legendary Laker in the history books, in a way that he probably wished he wouldn't."
