It has come.
Now I realize this is really no surprise to most posters here. Even the most optimistic toward oscar knew this time would come, some thought much sooner and some much later. Some made it a point to make comparisons and some ignored it. But for all of us "it" has always been there; comparing how oscar is doing at K-State and how Frank is doing building his own program from scratch.
Its safe to say that fulcrum has clearly shifted enough for the balance to swing; the better program now resides in Columbia, SC and not Manhattan, KS. One team sits outside the top 100 in kenpom and one sits in the top 30. One has won 7 straight games, including 2 wins over Big 12 teams. One has lost 3 straight, and looks like it will struggle to win 2 games in the Big 12. One has a pair of sophomores leading the program and turning into the best players in their league. The other has promising sophomores underachieving, struggling, and maybe even looking for a new place to play.
Frank's residue of toughness was real and its carryover had enormous benefits for oscar, one that he rode all the way to a league title (shared, but still). Since then the highlights have been sparse with a few nice wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, and Iowa State in the past year, but no NCAA tournament wins and then the disaster that has become this year's team. In four of the last seven games we've seen K-State teams fail to score 20 points in a half. We now see a K-State team at .500 at the latest point in a season since February of 2004. We see a K-State defense allowing a worse eFG% than any K-State team since kenpom started his rating system in 2002.
I once wrote stuff like
this and
this that highlighted some of the strengths of Frank Martin's teams. I won't deny that Martin recruited well for Kansas State, but let's not forget that not a single player from his tenure is currently playing NBA basketball. No doubt Martin had good players, but he built this program on toughness and effort; controlling things like offensive boards and getting to the free throw line while playing tenacious defense. His players bought in and things like effort and toughness were things you saw consistently from K-State basketball teams.
Even this year, K-State still does some things well under Weber. We rebound decent (both sides), we shoot threes, surprisingly this year's team gets to the FT line a bunch, and we force TOs at a high rate . However, the eFG% stat (allowing 51.6%) highlights a huge problem that we now see with this team. Despite turning it over a bit, opponents find it far too easy to run offense and get good shots (both 2s and 3s) against K-State. As long as you allow teams to get comfortable and shoot at that rate you aren't going to be very good because shooting is obviously the most important factor for offensive success. Despite having K-State's best shooting team (51.9%) in the kenpom era and a FT rate of over 50%, the Cats turn it over on over 1/5 of their possessions leading to often ugly and mediocre offense.
Meanwhile Frank's team is allowing teams to shoot only 39.9% and he has one of the Top 10 efficiency defenses in the country while continuing to oboard in typical junkyard dog fashion. Frank's tough brand of basketball is clearly in place with a core of young players and it looks like South Carolina will be a competitive basketball program for years to come. Weber's brand looks to be firmly in place as well, where inconsistency is the only thing that's consistent while the coach rarely takes ownership for the problems while squeaking his way through vague explanations.
For K-State basketball a long season awaits, likely the first below .500 finish in over a decade and the end of an 8 year streak of postseason basketball. The sad transition that most expected is finally here.
Its a sad day for K-State basketball.
