Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Panjandrum]

Now, how does this make sense for the networks and conferences?

A lot of people think that what will eventually happen is 4x16, or some mish-mash of 16, 14, and 12 team conferences.  The problem there is that when you work through that model, teams that are currently raking in the money as members of an autonomy conference are now left out.  This is where the lawsuits and Congressional BS starts.

Let's be clear: While this is about money, you can't create a scenario where you go below the 65 teams that are currently in a P5 conference (includes Notre Dame).  That's just not happening.  If it looks like KSU and ISU, or Baylor and TCU, are looking at losing tens of millions every year by dropping to a non-P5 conference, all bets are off when it comes to lawsuits, tax-free status, etc.  The beautiful illusion that these guys are able to keep alive is that this is about student athletes and not money.  But the second it becomes absolutely apparent that it's about money, and you can't lie your way out of it, that's when the tax free status is back on the table and Congressional hearings start.  No one wants that.

So, the answer is inclusion into Autonomy as opposed to exclusion.  ESPN, Fox, CBS, NBC, etc. would love nothing more than to give money to 72 teams than 128 teams.  Sure, you'll have to throw a bone to whatever's left, but when the teams left behind are Boise, East Carolina, Tulsa, and Buffalo, no one is really going to throw that huge of a stink. Also, by the time this would even come to pass, the revenue gap between the P5 and non-P5 will be in the hundreds of millions.  They'll be so far behind that it won't even be recognizable that we're in the same division.  The differences in facilities, coaching salaries, player benefits, etc. will be night and day.

It's also important to remember that the only P5-to-P5 movement has come from teams that only had one P5 team in the state, with the exception of Texas A&M.  However, as it played out, the state of Texas saw a net increase to the number of P5 schools.  You can never discount the impact of politics in this discussion.

If this scenario came to pass, ESPN, Fox, etc. wouldn't really ever have to show a non-P5 game on any of their networks between Thursday-Saturday.  They could do wall-to-wall football on every single ESPN station, including ESPNEWS, every Saturday of every year.  Fox could easily fill up two games a week plus FS1.  And all of the T3 networks that currently exist could show a minimum of two games per day, if not more.

From an ESPN perspective, and a smaller conference perspective, you could see a much tighter alignment between the MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West, etc. with ESPN3.  If we move to a more streaming thought, if you push these conferences to an online subscription model, it may entice even more folks to subscribe.  With BYU's worldwide footprint, online distribution may make more sense than any TV deal that currently exists today, anyway.

[Panjandrum]

It will be four 24 team conferences. In your PAC24 example, there will be an east and west division, each split north and south. Each 12 team division will act like the old B12 with the north and south champ playing in a East division championship, which will be round 1 of the new playoff system. Winner plays the West champion in round 2 for the PAC24 championship. The winners of the PAC24, SEC24, B1G24 and ACC24 will play each other in round 3 (semi's). Winners will play in the final.

The 96 teams will shake themselves out when schools will be allowed to pay the players a monthly stipend. Those that can't afford it will drop to FCS.

So what's going on now? Well, the B12 has started looking to expand behind closed doors. The targets are Cicny, East Carolina, and the Florida schools. OU president wanted to look more important than he is, so he got out I front of the cameras to flap his gums and look like the impetus of the whole thing.

Are you sure that you didn't mis-type Memphis when you said East Carolina?  Because that's just crazy talk.

[Blackcats]

It will be four 24 team conferences. In your PAC24 example, there will be an east and west division, each split north and south. Each 12 team division will act like the old B12 with the north and south champ playing in a East division championship, which will be round 1 of the new playoff system. Winner plays the West champion in round 2 for the PAC24 championship. The winners of the PAC24, SEC24, B1G24 and ACC24 will play each other in round 3 (semi's). Winners will play in the final.

The 96 teams will shake themselves out when schools will be allowed to pay the players a monthly stipend. Those that can't afford it will drop to FCS.

So what's going on now? Well, the B12 has started looking to expand behind closed doors. The targets are Cicny, East Carolina, and the Florida schools. OU president wanted to look more important than he is, so he got out I front of the cameras to flap his gums and look like the impetus of the whole thing.

Are you sure that you didn't mis-type Memphis when you said East Carolina?  Because that's just crazy talk.

Nope. They're a clone to KState in enrollment. Even the football stadium is the same-ish size. They have a similar endowment...and most importantly, in a P5 conference you pick up the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham for football, number #24 and #25 TV market in the U.S. 

[chum1]

Pete

[sonofdaxjones]

It will be four 24 team conferences. In your PAC24 example, there will be an east and west division, each split north and south. Each 12 team division will act like the old B12 with the north and south champ playing in a East division championship, which will be round 1 of the new playoff system. Winner plays the West champion in round 2 for the PAC24 championship. The winners of the PAC24, SEC24, B1G24 and ACC24 will play each other in round 3 (semi's). Winners will play in the final.

The 96 teams will shake themselves out when schools will be allowed to pay the players a monthly stipend. Those that can't afford it will drop to FCS.

So what's going on now? Well, the B12 has started looking to expand behind closed doors. The targets are Cicny, East Carolina, and the Florida schools. OU president wanted to look more important than he is, so he got out I front of the cameras to flap his gums and look like the impetus of the whole thing.

Are you sure that you didn't mis-type Memphis when you said East Carolina?  Because that's just crazy talk.

Nope. They're a clone to KState in enrollment. Even the football stadium is the same-ish size. They have a similar endowment...and most importantly, in a P5 conference you pick up the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham for football, number #24 and #25 TV market in the U.S.

I like ECU, but there's no comparison between the two schools from a financial perspective.   K-State has substantially more in contributions every year than ECU does, like hundreds of millions more at this juncture. 

It's a little harder to tell on the athletic side, because ECU athletics, like some other schools treats the Pirate Club as a completely separate corporate entity and donations to the Pirate Club are not reflected in ECU athletic revenue reports (which is why I've tried to explain to certain people that Equity in Athletic reports and NCAA revenue reports are not always a true reflection of an athletic departments financial horsepower).    But, while ECU has done some really nice things with facilities, K-State's projects are vastly more expensive and expansive.   That said, outside of a couple of areas like luxury amenities at the football stadium, ECU matches up quite well with many P5 schools. 

[TownieCat]

Good grief. Put down the gin, Pan. Take a break, Blackcats and Dax. None of that stuff you guys rambled about is going to happen.

[CNS]

The powers that be should do exactly that if they want me to stop G'ingAF about college all together.

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

[KITNfury]

I hate everyone that even brings up a non power 5 school as an option. Yea, power five schools might not be possible, but to commit athletic seppuku by inviting some crappy school would be crazy. We already  took our tithing with TCU.

[CyberToothCat]

While I like the idea of being "saved" thanks to being included in the Pac20, I don't see how that is a viable solution.

The reason for unrest in Sooner land is that they don't like their conf schedule. If the Big 12 is essentially merged into the PAC, OU will end up with essentially the same schedule as before. How does this help them?

How does the expanded PAC 20 network possibly make enough money to split 20 ways and still keep everyone happy. The current PAC network is struggling to gain carriage because no one out there cares very much. How does merging with a bunch of flyover states change that?

In order to make more money, the big boys need to trim some of the fat. The smaller schools with little TV draw or poor history or low population areas. There is no reason to double up in Washington or Oregon. (Or Kansas...) There is no reason to keep two small private colleges in Texas when one will do. I have nothing against Utah, but what do they bring to the table for the current or merged PAC? If the people in charge are truly trying to make more money, then cutting out a few of the bloodsuckers is a very good way to do it.

[sonofdaxjones]

Like we've said, if OU was winning the Big 12 their conference schedule would be fantastic and nobody would be saying a word and they'd be a lock for the CFB playoffs.

As I've also said, they and Texas had a chance to move Texas-OU back to campus about 7 or 8 years ago and they took the money and the guarantee of a split stadium every time, over having to go to the other guys home field every other year. 

Again, it only points to the idiocy of their thinking because where ever they might go only enlarges that conference and breaks it up into more pods.   There's no way the blue blood old guard are going to accept murderers row in their pod/division, so you're right into the scenarios of only seeing teams on your home field once every seven-eight-nine years. 

Look at Nebraska's home conference schedule.  Purdue, Minn, Illinois, Maryland . . . okay, those might sound like decent names, but that's mediocrity defined. 

[WillieWatanabe]

Pete

[Panjandrum]

While I like the idea of being "saved" thanks to being included in the Pac20, I don't see how that is a viable solution.

The reason for unrest in Sooner land is that they don't like their conf schedule. If the Big 12 is essentially merged into the PAC, OU will end up with essentially the same schedule as before. How does this help them?

How does the expanded PAC 20 network possibly make enough money to split 20 ways and still keep everyone happy. The current PAC network is struggling to gain carriage because no one out there cares very much. How does merging with a bunch of flyover states change that?

In order to make more money, the big boys need to trim some of the fat. The smaller schools with little TV draw or poor history or low population areas. There is no reason to double up in Washington or Oregon. (Or Kansas...) There is no reason to keep two small private colleges in Texas when one will do. I have nothing against Utah, but what do they bring to the table for the current or merged PAC? If the people in charge are truly trying to make more money, then cutting out a few of the bloodsuckers is a very good way to do it.

Cutting people out is how the whole racket falls apart.  That's when the lawsuits begin.

This is, and will be, an unprecedented age for revenue.  Once the cable model as we know it falls apart, it's going to be about getting as close to the status quo as we have now.  The key will be having a flagship network that you can get money from, which will require tons of content, and then monetizing what's left online.

A PAC 20 network would have a population footprint of over 100 million people. 

You can't think about this in pure dollars and cents.  You can't drop 5 or 6 schools from this mix and not expect a gigantic penalty.

Or T1/T2 deals would be neutral FWIW.  They are almost exactly the same. Same networks, same teams, same requirements for providing content.  You'd just cut one check instead of two.   You'd get much more carriage of the PAC 12 network as it stands today.  Hell, we'd all pretty much play the same teams...

[TheHamburglar]

Like we've said, if OU was winning the Big 12 their conference schedule would be fantastic and nobody would be saying a word and they'd be a lock for the CFB playoffs.

As I've also said, they and Texas had a chance to move Texas-OU back to campus about 7 or 8 years ago and they took the money and the guarantee of a split stadium every time, over having to go to the other guys home field every other year. 

Again, it only points to the idiocy of their thinking because where ever they might go only enlarges that conference and breaks it up into more pods.   There's no way the blue blood old guard are going to accept murderers row in their pod/division, so you're right into the scenarios of only seeing teams on your home field once every seven-eight-nine years. 

Look at Nebraska's home conference schedule.  Purdue, Minn, Illinois, Maryland . . . okay, those might sound like decent names, but that's mediocrity defined.

This all sounds nice.  However, consistently winning conference championships is not sustainable long term, for any program.  Any UP/AD would be stupid to make decisions with the assumption of winning a minimum of 11 games per year.  Also, they also didn't move the UT-OU game because the fans would riot. They love that game in Dallas.

You're acting like Boren's problem is fans demanding to move conferences.  Besides landthieves, that's not happening.  It's fans not willing to pay a premium and give money at the same rate the did.  Boren's seeing the cash flow slowing, so he's trying to enhance the product on his own.  Which brings us back to your point on the Dallas game.  You're right it's a cash thing.  He's trying to keep that cash while maximizing cash off his own stadium.

You keep trying to take Neb and A&M logic and apply it to OU from both a motivation and schedule perspective.  If they go to the Big10, they'll get Nebraska in Norman every other year.  If they go SEC, odds are they'll get each of Arkansas and LSU in Norman every other year and an extra non-con to play with.  There are more people with Arkansas ties in Oklahoma than KU, KSU, TCU, and Baylor combined. 

You can keep calling OU fan stupid, but that has no bearing on what's actually happening and motivating Boren.

[sonofdaxjones]

I never said that was motivating Boren, I fully understand what's motivating Boren, and the simple facts are; anywhere else they're thinking about going only makes the path to the trophies the big cigars desire that much harder.    Putting trophies of significance in the trophy case opens up the wallets and fires up the check writing faster than any other factor.   

The vast majority of fans don't understand that when say the Big 10 starts talking about $45 or $46 million dollar a year pay outs, that's everything, not just television.    The facts are, the progression of the Big 12 media deals and individual Tier III rights will allow the Big 12 schools to stay within striking distance of the Big, the SEC etc. etc.   

Winning means happy check writers, which means any gap on the conference revenue side, it made up multi-fold on the contribution side. 

Their cash is slowing, because they've lost five games on their home field in the last three seasons and four of those five losses were to teams that everyone from joe six pack OU fan to suite siting OU fan considers inferior.   They've been wrecked in two of their last three bowl games.   They win those games, and beat ND in Norman, we don't hear a peep, and the cash is flowing.  It's that simple.

[Panjandrum]

Good grief. Put down the gin, Pan. Take a break, Blackcats and Dax. None of that stuff you guys rambled about is going to happen.

At some point, if you want geographical sanity, but still want to make the money schools want to make, you need to consolidate.

Today, the model is to expand to high population areas and try to get subscriber fees  from people who don't even care about your content.  Once that dies (and it will), the model is going to be about how to get people who care about Texas to pay for who cares about UCLA.

[TownieCat]

Good grief. Put down the gin, Pan. Take a break, Blackcats and Dax. None of that stuff you guys rambled about is going to happen.

At some point, if you want geographical sanity, but still want to make the money schools want to make, you need to consolidate.

Today, the model is to expand to high population areas and try to get subscriber fees  from people who don't even care about your content.  Once that dies (and it will), the model is going to be about how to get people who care about Texas to pay for who cares about UCLA.

Oh.

[TheHamburglar]

Honestly, I don't think Big12 trophies mean much to OU fans anymore, for a few reason.  They've won so many of them, they're starting to numb to it. Even in the late 00s it started to mean "we beat UT".  Now it really just means "we beat UT".  With UT down, now if they don't win it it means they beat UT, but Bob blew another game.  I don't care how good TCU and Baylor are on paper, if they lose to either it's a blown game.  Another is no champ game.  Take out everything else, going to a champ game and winning it is fun as hell.  Beating OSU in Stillwater to hang on to a trophy you've already won, and probably sharing, doesn't mean the same, even if they are only giving 1 trophy in the joke of 1 true champion.  It's going to take a few years for that PR disaster to wear off.

[CyberToothCat]

So I was bored at work and spent a few minutes trying to visualize what four conferences of 80 teams would look like. I picture each conference having two divisions of ten teams, or four divisions of five teams. Play everyone in your division, some from the other divisions and a couple noncons. This includes all P5 teams, plus ND and several G5 teams. There are many schools that would scream bloody murder about this, but in some ways, I kind of like it. Reasonably balanced, makes some geographical sense, not too many "reaches" as far as what teams are included.

Western Conference
West Coast division: Ore, Wash St, Cal, USC, Ariz
Pacific division: Ore St, Wash, Stan, UCLA, Ariz St
Mountain division: Utah, BYU, Boise, CU, Col St
Heartland division: NU, Iowa, ISU, KU, KSU

Southern Conference
Lonestar division: UT, ATM, BU, SMU, UNM
Southwest division: OU, OSU, TT, TCU, Hou
Deep South division: Bama, Miss St, Ark, LSU, Mem
Gulf Coast division: Aub, Miss, Mizz, Tulane, So Miss

Eastern Conference
Atlantic division: FSU, GT, Mia, Wake, Lville
Southeast division: Tenn, VT Kentucky, Vandy, ECU
East Coast division: UGA, SoCar, NCSt, USF, UCF
MidAtlantic division: Fla, Clem, UNC, Duke, UVA

Northern Conference
New England division: PSU, Cuse, BC, Conn, Rutg
Northeast division: ND, Pitt, WVU, UMass, MD
Great Lakes division: Mich, Mich St, Illinois, NW, Cincy
Midwest division: Ohio St, Wisc, Minn, Purdue, Indiana

[GregKSU1027]

Check out @Jake_Trotter's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Jake_Trotter/status/615917086221598721?s=09

Check out @ESPN_Big12's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ESPN_Big12/status/616708734010560512?s=09

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

[Blackcats]

BYU is a non-starter in the B12 offices.

ESPN is dumb.

[KITNfury]

I have prolly average confidence but I'm like rough ridin' Johnny Bravo compared to the supposed big swinging dicks of major institutions. It's really strange and hard for me to comprehend.

[Panjandrum]

BYU is a non-starter in the B12 offices.

ESPN is dumb.

What about scheduling alliance? 5-7 games a year.  Get them access to our bowl lineup.  Work out a deal with ESPN to get their T1-T2 football lumped in with ours?

[star seed 7]

byu would be fine if they didn't demand special schedule treatment

[Panjandrum]

byu would be fine if they didn't demand special schedule treatment

They're really difficult to work with in general.  They're run by the Mormon church, and their motivations are going to differ from everyone else's. 

It just makes them really hard to work with as a true partner. 

However, if you want to bring them in for a media rights alignment sort of thing that's mutually beneficial, financially, I think there could be something there.  They could give us 5-7 games a year against our teams that will bring some added ratings to our platform, and a few of them could be in later evening time slots.  Getting them added to the bowl lineup could get us some more attractive arrangements with bowl partnerships.

The most difficult things that BYU has to face every year are assembling a schedule that their fans and TV partners won't barf all over, and they need to secure a bowl game against a decent opponent.  One of the reasons that Notre Dame got themselves hooked into the ACC arrangement was because those two things were becoming really difficult to do as conferences started to decrease their number of non-con games.

There's no good reason to get ourselves locked into any arrangement that has us playing a lot of non-revenue sports in Provo.  But there is good reason to find a way to bring them into the fold during football season without making them a member.

[Kat Kid]

I'm not sure which conference realignment personality I dislike more:

Pete's- This is like uncovering a massive conspiracy at the heart of America paranoia

Pan's- "In a world where humans are no long bound by cable tv." also #brands are important and good.

or Petro's- "Let's go to our buddy Jerry with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:  Jerry what about Pitt moving to the Big 12?  What say you?  If not them than who?  FINAL 5 and I'm GOING TO HOLD YOU TO THESE! Haha!  What's that Doug?  Right you are, Doug, Right you are.