If you really want get nerdy about this, here's how the provisionals broke down in Sedgwick....
Of the 1,326 provisionals counted, only 661 were for the GOP. 665 were for the Dems. So even though roughly 70% of the vote in Sedgwick was in the GOP primary, the provisional vote was 50/50. Which just goes to show that provisional ballots lean Dem, and we can probably expect the same 50/50 split in JoCo. That means that of the 1500 or so provisional that JoCo will count this afternoon, maybe only 700-800 will matter.
Next, of the provisonal GOP votes in Sedgwick, Kobach got 49.5%. Colyer got 35.2%. In the total vote, Kobach got 45.7% to Colyer's 37%. So Kobach actually performed slightly better, and Colyer slightly worse, in the provisional voting. That's a surprise.
If JoCo follows this trend, that's very bad news for Colyer.
Not that it matters at this point, but the JoCo provisional count basically followed the same exact trend as the Sedgwick provisional count. 60% of the JoCo vote was in the GOP primary, but the provisional ballots split 53/47 for the GOP. Only 772 provisional votes were cast in the GOP primary.
Kobach's 42% provisional ballot share outperformed his 37% in the total vote. Colyer's 39% provisional ballot share underperformed his 43% of the total vote.
I suspect this is why Colyer conceded. The final dozen or so counties to count their provisionals would likely have only made the numbers worse, as would suing to count even more provisionals.
