Lots of interesting info on the state of play for provisional ballots in this article today.
https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216446680.htmlThe most provisional ballots are in Sedgwick County, followed closely by Johnson. Together, they account for over 40% of the provisionals. However, while we know the total number of provisional ballots cast (about 9,000?) we have no idea how many of those were cast in the GOP primary. The provisionals cast in the Dem primary obviously don’t matter at all. But they won’t know that until after they unseal the ballot, which doesn’t happen until after they determine if the ballot can be cast. So there’s a likelihood that perhaps 50% or more of the provisionals don’t even matter.
However, it also seems that anecdotally some provisional ballots may have been cast by Democrats or unafiliated liberals wanting to cast votes for Colyer in the GOP primary but who had not changed their party affiliation to Republican. So to the extent those votes are ultimately counted, Colyer has to like his chances.
My personal suspicion is that Colyer gets enough of a boost from the provisionals to erase his 110 vote deficit.