Fight or Bend the Knee?

[wetwillie]

I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.

Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.

If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?

These are failures of execution, not strategy.

what about not playing for overtime chum, was that a failure of strategy?

I'm not sure there's a clear answer there. Sometimes, being aggressive pays off. Sometimes, it doesn't. Rarely, it ends in complete, heartbreaking disaster. Right?

yea it is all pretty murky with this stuff, he just got unlucky I guess.

[chum1]

I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.

Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.

If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?

These are failures of execution, not strategy.

Running it with the dude who had just fumbled the ball is an issue of strategy just as much as it is having Hubes throw the ball around like he's Peyton Manning.

Yea, you can say "it's not supposed to work like that" but you can't just ignore your personnel.

I think that Warren guy has been pretty good for them all year.

[TownieCat]

I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.

Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.

If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?

These are failures of execution, not strategy.

The play clock is :40 and begins as soon as the previous play ends. It was terrible math.

[michigancat]

If he was using a 25 second clock for his chart then I was right about his math being wrong

[TownieCat]

IMO, the decision to try to score from their own 25 with :20 left is much more indefensible than the decision to run a play instead of taking a knee with 1:30 left.

[catastrophe]

IMO, the decision to try to score from their own 25 with :20 left is much more indefensible than the decision to run a play instead of taking a knee with 1:30 left.

I honestly don't think either decision in a vacuum is wrong. It's just like, read the room Paul. Your guys have been reeling the entire half and you want to run a couple more plays just to see what happens?

[TownieCat]

IMO, the decision to try to score from their own 25 with :20 left is much more indefensible than the decision to run a play instead of taking a knee with 1:30 left.

I honestly don't think either decision in a vacuum is wrong. It's just like, read the room Paul. Your guys have been reeling the entire half and you want to run a couple more plays just to see what happens?

The play before their final fumble resulted in their QB nearly being sacked. At that point any HC with a brain in his head pumps the brakes and settles for OT.

[chum1]

I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.

Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.

If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?

These are failures of execution, not strategy.

The play clock is :40 and begins as soon as the previous play ends. It was terrible math.

Ha! I am old!

[Pett]

We had one timeout left...you bend the knee. Especially after you had eight fumbles (four lost) throughout the game.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Warren had fumbled earlier in the game, but any back in the nation would have fumbled once Will Geary got his arms around that football. That kid is just a freak of nature.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Paul Rhoads is the same thing as an obnoxious fan, he spits when he yells, doesnt know the rules, doesn't wear a head set, screams at the ref all game, and jumps for joy when his team does something good. The guy who wins the madden tournaments is far more qualified.

[MakeItRain]

I don't think it's an egregiously bad decision.  Punts can blow up, ask Michigan

I sure hope he didn't factor in a one in a lifetime freak incident. Even so I don't think he needed to punt at all, four kneel downs wouldn't have been terrible if you're so paralyzed by the prospect of muffing a punt that gets returned for a touchdown.

[stunted]

i didn't watch game, i don't know the timing situation. i did the math, here are my assumptions:

- if ISU ran 3 times and punted, KSU would get the ball back with 1 hail mary shot from 80+ yards away. ISU has a 60% chance of getting a first. hail mary shot is a 2% chance of scoring a td.
- if ISU fumbles, KSU gets the ball at midfield, and scores a td 40% of the time.

- if ISU kneels and punts, KSU would get the ball back with 1 hail mary shot from 80+ yards away.

on fumble rate, it is 1.2% for top 5 nfl backs. multiply that by 3, is 3.6% they fumble during the drive. lose half the time, so 1.8%. but most likely the runs are safe, so i just made it so they lose the ball 1.2% of the time.

if the situation was done 1000 times:

600 times ISU wins when getting first down.
fumble lost 12 times, KSU will score td 5 times.
punt 388 times, KSU will score td 8 times.
total KSU scores 13 tds.

ISU kneels and punts, KSU gets a hail mary attempt.
1000 times ISU punts.
1000*.02 times KSU scores td = 20.


based on my math, running the ball was better

[catastrophe]

So are we just supposed to ignore that the only non-made up number in all of that was the fumble rate for the 5 best NFL running backs?

[stunted]

So are we just supposed to ignore that the only non-made up number in all of that was the fumble rate for the 5 best NFL running backs?

the only made up number was converting a first down 60% of the time, and semi-made up number is KSU scoring 40% of the time from mid field. based it off http://www.footballdb.com/stats/drives.html and https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct, took roughly the middle, and made it harder to score based on isu playing more prevent.

actually on second look, KSU scoring 40% of the time from mid field is definitely high. plus if the 3rd run was fumbled, there would be a lot less time on the clock. making running the ball even better.

*fumble rate is definitely not 1.2% + 1.2% + 1.2% actually, but whatever, won't be a big difference

[ChiComCat]

Not scoring at all in the second half after putting up 35 in the first was far more egregious than not kneeling.

[Trim]

ISU had 1st and 10 w/1:31 left.  Do a kneel-down where the qb backs up and jacks around for a couple seconds before going down.  Probably KSU TO at 1:27.  Do another 3-second kneel-down on 2nd down.  ISU probably has the 3rd-down pay clock running out at :44 or :43.  Do another 3-second kneel-down on 3rd down.  Game over or worst-case, literally anything they do on 4th down that doesn't put the ball in KSU's hands (another kneel-down, throwing it out of bounds, etc.) ends the game.

*I never pay attention anymore to how the play-clock rules go but someone said ITT it'd 40 seconds from when the prior play ends regardless of what sort of play it was or how long it takes for the refs to spot the ball and get set for the next play.

[Trim]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000585317/Panthers-Brad-Nortman-hangs-out-in-the-back-of-the-endzone-for-a-safety

[MakeItRain]

I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.

An issue with ISU fumbling that has not been discussed is that was the first cold weather game both teams have played this year. Holding the football is always harder in cold weather because the ball is harder and less tacky. I mentioned to Chocolate Thundarr before the game that I thought it would be a much larger issue for K-State because they didn't even have the chance to practice in the cold. Yesterday, I heard that Rhoads had them practice inside last week.

[kso_FAN]

I guess to be fair, going into this game K-State had one of the worst forced TO rates in college football, so there's that. But MIR's point about cold weather and the fact that ISU had been fumbling the ball a bunch in the 2nd half (and all game) is more than a justifiable reason for ISU to kneel 3 times and then run around with the ball on 4th down and fall down when the clock runs out. Rhoads and whoever his OC deserve any and all criticism from their handling the end of that game because they absolutely cost their team a win.

[MakeItRain]

Anyone want to try to justify the decision to not kneel on the ball to go into overtime?

[Cartierfor3]

at some point its on the players not to fumble too. the not kneeling before OT was the worse of the 2 calls IMO

[pissclams]

what kind of term is "bend the knee"?  a weird one.  just say kneel, my goodness.

[kso_FAN]

Anyone want to try to justify the decision to not kneel on the ball to go into overtime?

All I can think of is that often road teams don't want to go to overtime and want to win it in regulation. ISU might have thought that even more so because of the way they let the game get tied. In post game Rhoads said they were trying to run a couple plays they thought were fairly safe that could get them near midfield and then take a chance to get into field goal range with the wind at their back.

at some point its on the players not to fumble too. the not kneeling before OT was the worse of the 2 calls IMO

This is true, but to me its up to the coaches to put their guys in the best possible situation to win a game. Why give the ball to a guy that has already fumbled earlier in the same quarter? The risks associated with kneeling 3 times and K-State using 1 timeout are way lower than running the ball into the middle of the defense where guys can hold the ball carrier up and go for a strip. Even running a play to the edge and telling the ball carrier to slide before going out of bounds is safer because a) it uses more clock and b) it doesn't allow the defense to gang tackle and go for a strip. An inside run play in that situation with an inexperienced back that has already fumbled simply was a dumb coaching decision that can't be justified IMO.

[michigancat]

I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.

An issue with ISU fumbling that has not been discussed is that was the first cold weather game both teams have played this year. Holding the football is always harder in cold weather because the ball is harder and less tacky. I mentioned to Chocolate Thundarr before the game that I thought it would be a much larger issue for K-State because they didn't even have the chance to practice in the cold. Yesterday, I heard that Rhoads had them practice inside last week.

They were on the KSU 44.