Author Topic: 3-6-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats  (Read 14119 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: 12-13-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #50 on: December 16, 2015, 01:12:35 AM »
oh, i read _fan's stats wrong.  52.6% twos, not on twos.


no reason they can't keep shooting 47.2 efg.  because that's not particularly good.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 12-13-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #51 on: December 16, 2015, 01:22:58 AM »
no reason they can't keep shooting 47.2 efg.  because that's not particularly good.

233rd  :frown:

Offline Mixed-Nutz

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Re: 12-13-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #52 on: December 16, 2015, 03:48:21 PM »
Last year's OOC vs this year's to this point.

Shooting is down, but we're better almost everywhere else; notably TOs and oboarding.



Probably fair to assume that this years eFG% won't have the bottom fallout like last year.

Why is that? We have inexperienced, streaky guards and a thin, undersized front court. We hope it doesn't happen but I wouldn't say its fair to assume that it won't get worse as our schedule toughens. Someone with a kenpom sub can confirm but I'm guessing the top defensive teams we will face will be in conference.

It can get worse but probably to the amount it dropped last year. Dropped like 8% last year. Last years drop was do to way more than just competition.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-13-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #53 on: December 20, 2015, 04:33:26 PM »
Post Larry Update:




Offline Canary

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Re: 12-13-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #54 on: December 20, 2015, 04:52:07 PM »
Post Larry Update:




Fan, do you want my ticket for Tuesday?  I can't get there.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-20-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #55 on: December 23, 2015, 11:31:25 AM »


Our big 3 are still scoring rate, but the scoring rate is going down for all of them. One guy needs to step up and score at 30 pp100. I'm not surprised by the drop by rest, but I don't think 3 guys at 25 pp100 will be enough.

We don't have one true PG, which can be okay. It would be nice for someone to step up and be a 8 (or better) ap100 guy. Solid A:TO by a bunch of guys, but currently our opponents are assisting on a higher rate of made FGs than we are which is not a Bruceketball trait.

Rebounding is by committee and really good. I believe it sustainable, but it won't be enough to win games if we don't score or shoot it better.



The trend has been set for grinder/ugly 1st halves with improved offensive play in the 2nd. However, the opponent's offense is also much better in the 2nd. 3pt shooting has been discussed, but 2PT% has also been slipping.

I'm not completely surprised by the slip in offensive efficiency/shooting because teams are getting more and more film on what is nearly a completely new version of Bruceketball. Now oscar and his players must adjust and find new ways to score.

Also, I think there is something to the "play K-State zone" stuff, but its also simplistic. I mean, we took apart Georgia's zone in the 2nd half of that win. Also, not many of the Big 12 teams are heavy on zone defense, we'll just have to see how this offense evolves.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-23-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #56 on: December 30, 2015, 03:41:51 PM »


The post OOC (yeah, we still play Ole Miss at the end of January) _FANalysis of K-State basketball, player by player.

Hopper
Edwards does a little of everything for the Cats. While leading the team in minutes, he is 2nd in his rate of scoring, assists, offensive boards, and steals. He's 2nd in assists to TO ratio and 2PT%. He's been an efficient player and pretty much what we all hoped he'd bring last year after his transfer from Maine. He's likely to be an All Big 12 caliber player if these numbers continue in Big 12 play. We need him to be more of a scorer, but maybe he's not capable of that. The biggest issue is only hitting 26% from 3 when 37% of his shots are 3s. He's too good at making twos to be shooting that many 3s. Of course part of that probably is carryover from last year's Big 12 play when Edwards hit 35% from 3 and only 45% on 2s when 41% of his shots were 3s.

Westicles
[Westicles is the team's best scorer, making an incredible jump in points per 100 from last year's 14.5, while playing nearly the same amount of minutes as Edwards. He's also really good on 2s and while he's not making 3s on his minimal amount of attempts, at least only 10% of his shots are behind the arc. Solid at drawing fouls while leading the team in FT attempts and is 3rd on the team in assists to TO ratio. With his size, its reasonable to expect Westicles to be a better rebounder, though he wasn't great there last year.

Claws
Wade has exceeded expectations to start his career at K-State. He's 3rd on the team in scoring rate while also putting up good rebounding numbers and rarely turning the ball over. He can shoot it both inside (over 50% on 2s) and out (34% on 3s) and has been solid from the FT line while getting there at a good rate. Wade has struggled with foul trouble in a few games (though he's still played more minutes than any other big) and his production has dipped a bit lately (3 of the last 4 games scoring in single digits).

Big Meat
Hurt has been a great defensive rebounder and is a threat to shoot it from 3. He scored at a high rate to start the year, but has really dropped off lately. Also not much of an offensive rebounder and is only making 46% of his 2s.

DJamer
Johnson has been our best offensive rebounder and has a good scoring rate in the 20s. He also leads in blocked shots and is solid on the defensive boards and on steals. He is still bothered by injury and we need him to play more minutes.

Deathbite
Stokes has been really steady at PG while playing a lot of minutes with the best assist rate on the team along with hitting 33% of his 3s. He needs to be much more efficient on 2s and cut down on TOs.

The Flush
Brown leads the team in 3pt% and steal rate with a decent scoring rate. Like Stokes, he's been really bad a 2s, plus his assist to TO ratio is below 1.

This team has been better than I anticipated and the 10 and 2 record while avoiding any embarrassing losses has been nice. However, while Georgia on the road is a decent win, this team hasn't beaten anyone that will likely be a tournament team, so those wins will have to come in the Big 12. Shooting is still a major problem, especially in the first half of games. Fortunately, this team has cut down TOs and has been really good on the offensive boards while the defense has also been really good. The Cats could make a push to be .500 in the Big 12 and be an NCAA tournament team, but they will have to be more consistent on offense, especially shooting better from 3, while maintaining tough defense. Against the best league in the country with 10 games against current Top 30 teams and 14 against the Top 50, that will be easier said than done.

Offline Canary

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Re: 12-23-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #57 on: December 30, 2015, 05:09:04 PM »
FAN, great work and analysis. Thanks. I think they have a shot to make a little noise in conference.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: 12-23-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #58 on: December 30, 2015, 05:17:20 PM »
Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Hoping the Cats keep it going.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk


Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-30-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #59 on: December 30, 2015, 08:09:24 PM »
The evolution of Edwards from Maine to K-State is fairly interesting, especially in regard to shot selection. As I said, 37% of his attempts this year and in his career at K-State are 3s. As a freshman at Maine, 18.5% of his attempts were 3s and as a SO 25% of his attempts were 3s. I'm sure it was easier for him to get more quality 2PT attempts against Maine's competition, plus he nearly shot 1/3 of Maine's attempts when he was on the floor his SO year. When he shot 30% last year overall and then 34% in conference play from 3, I'm sure continuing his percentage of 3PT attempts seemed like a good idea. Even though he's managed a very nice offensive rating on kenpom of 114.5, he's still only hitting 25.6% of his 3s while making a very impressive 54.8% on 2s, so it seems like it would be a good idea for him to focus on getting more 2s and/or continuing to draws fouls/increase his FT rate (which he's also been good at this year).

In any case, he's clearly been the MVP of the team so far this year considering the number of things he's doing very well.

Offline Canary

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Re: 12-30-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #60 on: December 30, 2015, 08:15:53 PM »
He's been the player I am putting my hopes on for the team's success this year. I think the team will go as he goes, for the most part.  Even though Stokes is vital to the team. 

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-30-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #61 on: December 30, 2015, 08:17:26 PM »
He's been the player I am putting my hopes on for the team's success this year. I think the team will go as he goes, for the most part.  Even though Stokes is vital to the team. 

Stokes and Brown have to hit perimeter shots and be more efficient scorers. That pair of young guards can help this team a bunch in Big 12 play.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-30-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #62 on: December 30, 2015, 08:25:19 PM »


Now for the post OOC advanced box score.

The difference from first half to second half efficiency is very interesting. Notable is how much better this team is at protecting the ball (TO%), hitting shots (particularly 3s), and distributing the ball (A%) in the 2nd half. Oboarding and 2PT% remain consistent. FT rate makes a considerable jump, but that make sense with drawing fouls to finish some of the closer games we've had.

Defensively the 2nd half is worse as well, but the improvement is in oboarding allowed and FT rate. Overall the defensive numbers are very good, granted we haven't exactly played a really tough schedule.

Offline Canary

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Re: 12-30-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #63 on: December 30, 2015, 08:31:25 PM »
He's been the player I am putting my hopes on for the team's success this year. I think the team will go as he goes, for the most part.  Even though Stokes is vital to the team. 

Stokes and Brown have to hit perimeter shots and be more efficient scorers. That pair of young guards can help this team a bunch in Big 12 play.
I don't disagree with that. I'm looking forward to having them around.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 12-30-15 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #64 on: January 03, 2016, 06:57:24 PM »
Updated per 100 possession ratings. Big 12 only will come out after next weekend.



Westicles takes a big hit in TO rate (after 7 vs WVU) and Stokes drops in 3PT% (after 1-7).

Brown's point production makes a big jump after his 20.


Offline sys

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Re: 1-3-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #65 on: January 04, 2016, 03:22:43 PM »
a mildly interesting thing i noticed on kenpom.  the 2014 kstate team and this year's team are both top 10 at 3% defense.  will be more interesting if that holds up for the rest of the year.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: 1-3-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #66 on: January 04, 2016, 03:25:50 PM »
wvu leads the nation in 3% defense, which is also mildly interesting.  i wish i'd have known that before saturday's game so i'd have been mildly more interested in both teams missing tons of 3s.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 1-3-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #67 on: January 06, 2016, 02:34:40 PM »
Season per 100s...



And Big 12 only per 100s...



Big 12 numbers are flawed because of small sample size, but still somewhat interesting.

Brown is on fire.

Stokes is not.

Edwards, Westicles, and Hurt have to play much, much better.

Big 12 shooting is just ridiculously bad from 3, decent from 2.

Offline sys

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Re: 1-6-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #68 on: January 06, 2016, 02:40:12 PM »
ou is #3 in the nation at 3%, kstate, of course, is #1 at 3% defense.  clash of titans on saturday, should be great fun.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 1-6-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #69 on: January 06, 2016, 02:45:31 PM »
ou is #3 in the nation at 3%, kstate, of course, is #1 at 3% defense.  clash of titans on saturday, should be great fun.

:D


Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 1-6-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #70 on: January 10, 2016, 01:13:47 PM »




Big 12 play has shown the incredible scoring ability of The Flush. Note his improvement in 2PT% as a major factor in his scoring uptake.

However, we've seen a real regression from Edwards and to a lessor extend Westicles. Plus a major shooting slump from Stokes. Those 3 have to pick up their shooting/scoring for the Cats to win Big 12 games.

Offline Mixed-Nutz

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Re: 1-10-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #71 on: January 10, 2016, 03:49:35 PM »
Kam and Dean need to get back to hitting threes.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 1-10-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #72 on: January 13, 2016, 12:22:35 PM »
Updated and now animated (5 second intervals between Big 12 and season).



The Flush's scoring continues to be impressive and a great shooting game from Stokes moves him back to 30% from 3.

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Re: 1-13-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #73 on: January 13, 2016, 12:26:27 PM »
that animation is very elite


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

New warning: Don't get in a fight with someone who doesn't even need to bother to buy ink.

Offline Canary

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Re: 1-13-16 K-State Player Per 100 Ratings and Team ADV Stats
« Reply #74 on: January 13, 2016, 12:42:12 PM »
that animation is very elite
It is.  No criticism here; just wish I could follow that quickly.