Author Topic: Kobach our next goofenor? Please no. He's running (Read 48875 times)

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #400 on:** August 13, 2018, 04:14:53 PM »

Kobach's lead back up to 192 with about 70 smaller counties finishing their canvas of provisionals. The big haul comes tomorrow when Sedgwick (morning) and Johnson (afternoon) report their provisionals. Then all hell breaks loose. Maybe. Maybe not.

http://www.kcur.org/post/kansas-statewide-primary-election-results-2018#stream/0

SkinnyBenny · « **Reply #401 on:** August 13, 2018, 08:39:28 PM »

So are Sedgwick and Johnson the only counties left? Like we’ll actually know the (first) final tally tomorrow?

Mrs. Gooch · « **Reply #402 on:** August 13, 2018, 08:41:24 PM »

Quote from: cfbandyman on August 13, 2018, 03:52:19 PM

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on August 13, 2018, 03:02:28 PM
Quote from: Phil Titola on August 13, 2018, 02:58:55 PM
I don't think anybody who is going to die over the term of whatever they voted for should count.

The article doesn't explain why the dead person's provisional vote didn't count, but I presume it had something to do with not being able to get necessary followup info on that vote to authenticate it.

This is why election receipts should be a thing and like the only real thing needed.

Well you get a sticker.

Dugout DickStone · « **Reply #403 on:** August 14, 2018, 09:14:42 AM »

SG will definitely go full yokel

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #404 on:** August 14, 2018, 10:43:23 AM »

Kobach nets another 94 votes in Sedgwick after counting provisionals, bringing his current lead to 300.

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article216653870.html

Dugout DickStone · « **Reply #405 on:** August 14, 2018, 10:45:33 AM »

Quote from: Dugout DickStone on August 14, 2018, 09:14:42 AM

SG will definitely go full yokel

DQ12 · « **Reply #406 on:** August 14, 2018, 10:48:36 AM »

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #407 on:** August 14, 2018, 11:01:00 AM »

If you really want get nerdy about this, here's how the provisionals broke down in Sedgwick....

Of the 1,326 provisionals counted, only 661 were for the GOP. 665 were for the Dems. So even though roughly 70% of the vote in Sedgwick was in the GOP primary, the provisional vote was 50/50. Which just goes to show that provisional ballots lean Dem, and we can probably expect the same 50/50 split in JoCo. That means that of the 1500 or so provisional that JoCo will count this afternoon, maybe only 700-800 will matter.

Next, of the provisonal GOP votes in Sedgwick, Kobach got 49.5%. Colyer got 35.2%. In the total vote, Kobach got 45.7% to Colyer's 37%. So Kobach actually performed slightly better, and Colyer slightly worse, in the provisional voting. That's a surprise.

If JoCo follows this trend, that's very bad news for Colyer.

bucket · « **Reply #408 on:** August 14, 2018, 11:07:55 AM »

This is where the Ted Nugent visit pays off for KK

sys · « **Reply #409 on:** August 14, 2018, 11:24:28 AM »

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on August 14, 2018, 11:01:00 AM

If you really want get nerdy about this, here's how the provisionals broke down in Sedgwick....

Of the 1,326 provisionals counted, only 661 were for the GOP. 665 were for the Dems. So even though roughly 70% of the vote in Sedgwick was in the GOP primary, the provisional vote was 50/50. Which just goes to show that provisional ballots lean Dem, and we can probably expect the same 50/50 split in JoCo. That means that of the 1500 or so provisional that JoCo will count this afternoon, maybe only 700-800 will matter.

Next, of the provisonal GOP votes in Sedgwick, Kobach got 49.5%. Colyer got 35.2%. In the total vote, Kobach got 45.7% to Colyer's 37%. So Kobach actually performed slightly better, and Colyer slightly worse, in the provisional voting. That's a surprise.

If JoCo follows this trend, that's very bad news for Colyer.

that's good stuff, ksu_w.

i don't think we even need to worry about the relative performances, though. 300 is too many, there's not enough votes left for colyer to catch up, even if joco breaks heavily for him (which as you note, there's no reason to think they will).

this thing is over. on to the recount.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #410 on:** August 14, 2018, 11:44:33 AM »

Yeah but the lead KK finishes with is very significant, both in terms of a recount and whether Colyer sues to count more provisionals or absentees. If KK wins by less than 100, I think a lawsuit is likely. I’d prefer for the margin to be big enough that the rest of the provisionals won’t matter. A recount isn’t going to change anything unless the margin is much smaller.

sys · « **Reply #411 on:** August 14, 2018, 12:32:29 PM »

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on August 14, 2018, 11:44:33 AM

Yeah but the lead KK finishes with is very significant, both in terms of a recount and whether Colyer sues to count more provisionals or absentees.

good point.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #412 on:** August 14, 2018, 01:13:57 PM »

You won't find this analysis in any of the papers or other publications, btw. This is GE Premium Exclusive Content.

ChiComCat · « **Reply #413 on:** August 14, 2018, 01:20:26 PM »

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on August 14, 2018, 01:13:57 PM

You won't find this analysis in any of the papers or other publications, btw. This is GE Premium Exclusive Content.

I appreciate it. It's tough to find a good update out there and not articles that are already outdated.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #414 on:** August 14, 2018, 01:45:54 PM »

Evidently a few other small counties have finished their canvass and Kobach's lead is now 305. JoCo to announce at 4:00 today or a little after.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216653870.html

steve dave · « **Reply #415 on:** August 14, 2018, 04:15:02 PM »

Nice work ITT KSU-dub

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

star seed 7 · « **Reply #416 on:** August 14, 2018, 04:18:00 PM »

sys · « **Reply #417 on:** August 14, 2018, 04:46:15 PM »

https://twitter.com/KCTV5/status/1029482858723909633

DQ12 · « **Reply #418 on:** August 14, 2018, 04:49:24 PM »

pretty surprised kobach murdered the provisionals given colyer's domination of the early voting.

wetwillie · « **Reply #419 on:** August 14, 2018, 04:53:30 PM »

Hopefully Colyer accepts the initial and doesn’t embarrass himself further. Time to heal.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #420 on:** August 14, 2018, 04:58:50 PM »

I think it would be prudent to request a recount.

wetwillie · « **Reply #421 on:** August 14, 2018, 05:01:38 PM »

Waste of taxpayers money, time to unify the party.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #422 on:** August 14, 2018, 05:02:17 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on August 14, 2018, 05:01:38 PM

Waste of taxpayers money, time to unify the party.

The taxpayers only pay if the original count was wrong.

sys · « **Reply #423 on:** August 14, 2018, 05:08:46 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on August 14, 2018, 05:01:38 PM

Waste of taxpayers money, time to unify the party.

time to unite the right.

wetwillie · « **Reply #424 on:** August 14, 2018, 05:13:20 PM »

Quote from: sys on August 14, 2018, 05:08:46 PM

Quote from: wetwillie on August 14, 2018, 05:01:38 PM
Waste of taxpayers money, time to unify the party.

time to unite the right.

I’d rather be Russian than a democrat.